HCMC – The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) has forecast two scenarios for Vietnam’s textile and apparel next year.

VITAS said that exports of key industries, including textiles, would plunge in early 2023 due to runaway inflation and expectations of global recession, resulting in a sharp rise in inventories.

The textile industry is expected to see an average drop of 20-27% in the first quarter. The situation may linger until late June, bringing more unexpected developments into the market.

Besides fewer new orders, businesses will have to deal with increasing pressure from major importers such as the U.S. and the EU, as they require their products to be recyclable and durable and minimize emissions during production.

In the first scenario, in which global demand rebounds strongly in the third and fourth quarters, apparel exports may hit US$47-48 billion, equivalent to annual growth of 8%.

In the second scenario, wherein the situation has not improved much, exports should range from US$45 billion US$46 billion.

Exporters should closely monitor the market development, choose suitable products for production and give their staff stable employment, said the chairman of the Vietnam Garment and Textile Association, Vu Duc Giang.

He also advised against signing long-term contracts next year, as it would prove disadvantageous in the long run.

Despite global economic woes this year, Vietnam’s textile and garment exports are predicted to generate over US$43 billion, up 8.8% over 2021, according to VITAS.

The U.S. remained the biggest buyer, with US$18 billion, followed by South Korea, Japan, and China, with US$4.2 billion, US$3.9 billion and nearly US$3.9 billion, respectively.