Moody's Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corporation, has forecast that Vietnam, along with China and Hong Kong (China), will enjoy the fastest economic growth in the world ahead in 2021, therefore seeing the Asia-Pacific region lead the global recovery following the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Moody's Analytics believes Vietnam will be one of
the fastest-growing economies in 2021
"The Asia-Pacific economy has done the best job of containing COVID-19 and it is rebounding with the global recovery of industrial production and global trade. Furthermore, it enjoys a level of fiscal support in many countries that will keep a floor under the economy and preserve enterprises and household financial conditions so that they are able to contribute to economic recovery," said Steve Cochrane, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region of Moody's Analytics.
Despite this positive forecast, Moody's Analytics baseline economic outlook anticipates growth across the entire Asia-Pacific region next year, although the region’s economic recovery will not be fully complete until international travel and tourism returns once again.
The true impact can be seen when growth rates are combined with the depth of each country's economic downturn, a factor which determines when each nation’s GDP will return to a new peak level.
Most notably, China already achieved this during the second quarter as it rebounded quickly from its recession that had begun in early January. Both Taiwan (China) and the country will reach new peaks by the time Q4 of 2020 comes to an end, according to Moody's Analytics.
In contrast, Japan, the Philippines, and India will not reach new peaks until the second half of 2022. Indeed, Japan's slow rate of growth combined with a longer recession that first started in the fourth quarter of 2019 is set to delay its shift on the road to economic expansion. Elsewhere, India and the Philippines were the two nations hardest hit by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore have plenty of growth to recover in economic terms.
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