Rent Declined by 43% for Causeway Bay
Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney ranked Top 3 in Asia Pacific
HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 22 April 2021 - Two-thirds of retail strips in Asia Pacific saw rental declines in 2020, with Causeway Bay in Hong Kong experiencing the steepest decline at 43%, according to Cushman & Wakefield's latest Asia Pacific Main Streets Report. Causeway Bay had been #1 across the globe in retail rental value in the last 2 years. Yet, its position was taken over by Tsim Sha Tsui in 2020. Retail rental dropped by 42% and 35% year-on-year for Central and Tsim Sha Tsui respectively. On average, retail space rental value citywide has fell by 38% in Hong Kong over the course of 2020.
"Ownership diversity is the key differentiator between Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay retail rental performance. Ownership of Canton Road in Tsim Sha Tsui, the main shopping area, is more centralized when compared with Russell Street of Causeway Bay. In times of crisis, centralized ownership allows for more flexible measures to retain tenants, thus maintaining a more stable trade mix with a cluster of renowned brands with optimal brand impact," said Mr. Kevin Lam, Cushman & Wakefield's Executive Director, Head of Retail Services, Hong Kong. "Looking ahead, with international travel made possible again towards the later part of 2021, together with a stable trade mix, we would expect retail rental performance to recover first in Tsim Sha Tsui district for the same reason," Mr. Lam continued.
However, the retail sector in Mainland China had the least disruption amongst all the markets in the region, with average rental declines of 5%. In contrast to the Beijing Central Business District (CBD) which had a 14% decrease in rental in 2020, the Luohu district in Shenzhen saw the largest rental growth of 5%.
Mr. Keith Chan, Cushman & Wakefield's Director, Head of Research, Hong Kong, commented, "Hong Kong remained in the top position regardless of the average retail rental drop of 38% in 2020. Tsim Sha Tsui still sits 31% above the second place, Ginza of Tokyo. This reflects the exceptionally high retail rentals in Hong Kong regardless of the pandemic outbreak and economic downturn."
"The key market drivers in operation due to COVID-19, namely international border closures, lockdowns and work-from-home practices have been universally felt across the region. As a result, we see little change in Asia Pacific rent cost rankings, at least for the top 10 cities, with Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul and Osaka maintaining their dominance at the top of the list," noted Dr. Dominic Brown, Head of Insight & Analysis, Asia Pacific at Cushman & Wakefield.
Most expensive retail districts by market ranked by Q4 2020 rent (USD/sqft/yr)
Tsim Sha Tsui
Pitt Street Mall
Shinsaibashisuji / Midosuji
West Nanjing Road
Asia Retail Trends
- Rise of localism – Shoppers have become more supportive of local businesses to help them survive through the pandemic. In a 2020 global survey of 8,000 consumers carried out by Rakuten Advertising, 50% of households responded that they had purchased more from local businesses. Furthermore, consumers in Asia Pacific were more likely to avoid making international online purchases, showing a preference to spend their money domestically.
- Growth of e-commerce – The pandemic has inevitably increased online retailing as lockdowns and health concerns have pushed purchasers onto digital platforms. For the Asia Pacific region, which was already a digitally hungry region, the growth of e-commerce comes as no surprise. The region has a 64% share of global e-commerce at USD2.5 trillion out of a global total of USD3.9 trillion, according to e-marketer.
- The pandemic has also transformed the luxury goods sector with online share of luxury purchases increasing from 12% in 2019 to 23% in 2020, according to Bain & Company. However, it remains too early to tell if this is a temporary enforced shift or start of a much wider acceptance of online retailing for luxury goods. While consumers of luxury goods generally prefer to buy in-store to enjoy the accompanying high-quality service, the growing presence of omni-channel marketing will have an impact on the evolution of the luxury goods sector.
The retail sector is facing some of the most significant cyclical and structural headwinds of all real estate sectors; some of which were in play prior to COVID-19 while others have occurred as a result of swift and strict restrictions on domestic and internal population mobility. Such issues have had a disproportionate impact on high-end retail destinations. It is unlikely that these districts will immediately spring back to pre-COVID performance because of the slow pace of recovery in international travel, but at the same time it does not mean that they will fade into irrelevance. The progress made in the roll-out of vaccine programs globally and the gradual return to normalcy will also contribute to the overall recovery of the retail sector.
For retail, in the near term, this means greater bifurcation in consumer spending; with value-oriented concepts continuing to flourish and luxury retail rebounding more quickly. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, global luxury retail generally rebounded within a 12 to 18-month timeline. Evidence from China in 2020 supports this view, which should provide a dose of optimism to the luxury sector.
While the focus is understandably on current concerns and difficulties, it would be remiss not to keep an eye on longer term opportunities. Over the next decade, the Asia Pacific regional economy will continue to outpace the rest of the world and grow from a 36% share to 40%. The middle class is forecast to swell by over 1.5 billion over the same period. These trends, together with the fact that many markets across the region, especially in South East Asia, remain underserved by physical retail floorspace highlight the opportunities on offer beyond the current COVID-19 affected conditions.
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