Bustling and unexpected bank stocks
admin 16-10-2020, 11:52

On October 15, 308 million SGB shares of Saigonbank were listed on UPCoM. Rarely in the past, the market witnessed a fierce floor drop, up to -40%.

The SGB is typical of recent and present transactions in banking stocks: bustling, sudden, sudden, but not all move forward; Each code is still associated with its own story and status.

Price movements of LPB shares in the past 6 months – Source: VCBS

VEGETABLE FLUTS

In the first session of this week, CTG of VietinBank surged, with large volume matched at ceiling price. Although the market recovered strongly, the VN-Index from 780 to 940 points, but not much “purple” appeared in such lines of banking stocks.

The bounce at CTG was not much of a surprise. Right before that, the market received information that the Government revised the mechanism, officially paved the way to increase capital for commercial banks (commercial banks) with state-dominated capital. Expectations light up: VietinBank has not paid dividends for two years, the mechanism opens, the possibility of paying by stock

Another bounce. This time it was a surprise. On October 14, Techcombank’s TCB hit the ceiling price. In the history of this stock, the maximum price increase during the session is really rare. This movement was unexpected, because of the sideways decline before and right after that, TCB increased sharply to the reference level.

Previously, up to now, the market witnessed longer and more durable bounces.

From the end of March to the middle of April, the most intense period of Covid-19 translation, SHB of Saigon – Hanoi Bank (SHB) has created an unprecedented jump in history, from about 7,500 VND to over 17,000 VND. VND / share. Its sustainability is still shown until now, when the rather high price around VND 16,000 is maintained, completely leaving behind for many years to sink below par value.

Or at LienVietPostBank’s LPB, it took almost half a year since the start of the bounce, the recent bounce decisively surpassed the face value.

Regarding price movements, you can similarly see strong upward momentum in the past three months at HDB, VIB

Come along, exciting transactions. Typically at SHB, the aforementioned breakthrough once recorded bursts of volume around 70 million units. Or still fresh, at LPB has just had a session of up to 33 million units, TCB has exchanged over 40 million units in just one session. At CTG, the scale of around 15 million units is already familiar. At STB, there are also tens of millions of units that do exercises when they are on air.

SHB share price movements in the past 6 months – Source: VCBS

WHAT ARE “OLD STOCKS”?

The case of strong and durable price increases at LPB, SHB or VIB recently and now is associated with a fresh trend: the road to HoSE. Investors are still accustomed to calling folk stocks with “game” changing floors.

Similarly, STB has also been a hit recently when there is a “game”, rumors of some famous names buying back shares Or VPB, a bit behind, is also noticed “game” IPO of subsidiary FE Credit with the expectation of large surplus revenue

The stock market has been active for many months, such “games” create new features, and prices have been somewhat stimulated.

But looking back, there are also many codes that do not stand out, lack of bounce. Also according to everyday investors’ parlance, these are “old stocks”.

For example, Vietcombank’s Vietcombank. The bank is leading the profit, the financial position is also leading, the market price is also the highest in the industry on the floor, and the corresponding market capitalization is leading, but there is no attractive bounce. VCB price fluctuated around 85-87,000 dong / share during the past time.

Looking at BID, the price has also “aged” when stable around 40-41,000 VND for a long time, there is a gradual absence of elegant bounces that have been shown before.

Or even VPB, after the “game” IPO of FE Credit faded, the price was “old” and hesitated around 23-24,000 VND.

When talking about this common point, of course, it is indispensable to MBB of Military Bank (MB). The price “gets old” when around the 17.x area during the past time, is also low after the dividend payment split.

Price movements of VIB shares in the past 6 months – Source: VCBS

BACKGROUND MANY AND CHEAP MONEY

Although there are such “old stocks”, or “aging” price signs, but in general, as above, bustling bounces are becoming prominent in banking stocks.

Each stock is associated with its own story, based on the business results and prospects. But, all are moving with the influencing factor: the rich and cheap money landscape.

Cheap last and current not in quotes anymore. Because on the interbank market, the interest rate is close to 0%; on the deposit list of commercial banks has also fallen to the lowest level in decades.

With that, more money manifests. After admiring the trading size of 7,000 – 8,000 billion, then 10,000 billion, and higher, the market has also gotten used to the regularity of these scales.

Cheap money, lots of money are needed for these bounces, especially with fuel-consuming stocks like banks.

It is very necessary, because to form a bounce in bank shares requires great resources. This line has popular members listed size of over 1 billion shares, even over 2 billion, floating and loose goods are often large Accordingly, bouncing almost all require a lot of money, even it takes a lot to maintain the length and durability.

As above, SHB used to need a scale of about VND 1,000 billion / session to absorb the supply of around 70 million units; The sudden bounce at TCB last with a volume of over 40 million units must also push with a trillion resources

The problem is, the higher the price goes, the bigger the required amount of money is required, the larger amount multiplied by the high price.

Thus, the source of money is one of the influencing factors. The context of the money source is getting more attention. With the epidemic situation in the world, with the monetary easing orientation showing, along with the direction of money pumping recently, the current context is not expected to change soon.

In the foreground, one of the leaders of the prevention of Covid-19 of Vietnam has just noticed: it is necessary to be wary of the peaceful space between the two “battles”. Because, almost, winter is coming.

MINH DUC

Source: bizlive.vn – Translated by fintel.vn